October 27, 2026

Poll Gives Democrats an Eight-Point Midterm Advantage, With House Favored to Flip

Democrats lead Republicans by 8 points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot, and the poll points to Democrats as favorites to win the House.
The poll’s likely-voter screen shows Trump’s approval at 40%, while Democrats have a 10-point enthusiasm edge; however, enthusiasm is lower among several groups central to the Democratic coalition.
Redistricting has tilted House seats toward Republicans, and many Democratic voters doubt their candidate will win despite saying they plan to vote Democratic.
Cost of living is a leading concern, with 38% saying their finances have worsened; democracy resonates with Democrats and independents, while immigration ranks highest among MAGA supporters.

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